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SIS
formula aims to calculate expected wins number
Feb 12, 2025
A new metric aimed at grading coaches’
performance offers some long-term appreciation for former Titans coach Mike
Vrabel while
forecasting concern over current Titans coach Brian Callahan.
Sports Info Solutions, a sports data website, recently debuted
an “expected wins
stat,” measuring how many games a team should have won
based on measurables from every play of every game. The formula uses a summed
version of each player on a roster’s “wins above replacement,” which SIS takes
from its Total Points player
value stats.
SIS then uses the players’ performance on the field as a measure
of the team’s quality and converts it to an expected wins number for the team —
and the coach.
For example, the Kansas City Chiefs, per the SIS formula, should
have been expected to win only 9.8 games during the 2024 season. The Chiefs won
15 games, meaning coach Andy Reid is credited with 5.2 wins over expected.
Reid has three of the best six wins over expected seasons since
2016, which is when SIS began tracking football. In 2016, the Chiefs produced
4.4 wins over expected during a 12-4 season. And in 2020, Kansas City totaled
3.7 wins over expected during a 14-2 season.
Which NFL coach has the
most wins over expected since 2016, based on the SIS formula?
It’s Vrabel, whose 10.1
wins over expected as Titans coach from 2018-23 have him ahead of Pittsburgh’s
Mike Tomlin (9.9), Las Vegas’ Pete Carroll (9.7), Minnesota’s Kevin O’Connell
(8.1) and former Houston coach Bill O’Brien (7.9).
Jeff Dean of SIS writes that Vrabel’s position atop the list
“may be a little bit of a surprise, but he overperformed his team’s expected
wins in five of his six seasons as the Titans head coach. The only season the
team underperformed was his last [in 2023]. If you hear anyone say that Vrabel gets the most out of
his players, think back to his presence atop the list here.”
The coach who fared worst in combined wins over expected since
2016 was former Buffalo and Jacksonville coach Doug Marrone (-9.6), followed by
ex-Indianapolis, Arizona and Tampa Bay coach Bruce Arians (-9.2).
Former Dallas coach Jason Garrett had the worst wins over
expected in a single season, with a minus 5.2 figure in 2019.
Callahan was not listed among the five individual worst seasons
for wins over expected since 2016.
But SIS compiled another list — "most and fewest total wins
expected per three seasons since 2016” — that included Callahan. He has
obviously coached only one season, but the formula is designed “so everyone
with at least 16 games coached, this is what we’d expect from them in 3×17 = 51
games.”
Using that system, Callahan — if his Titans continued on the
same path as 2024 — would be expected to compile by 2026 a minus 7.3 figure,
which would rank fourth-worst among all coaches since 2016. Former San Diego
Chargers coach Mike McCoy currently has the worst mark in that measurement at
minus 12.9.
Callahan took his share of blame for the Titans’ 3-14 season,
which netted Tennessee the No. 1 overall pick in the draft. He has every
intention of changing the team's direction in 2025.
“Ultimately, I have to do a better job as a head coach so we're
not in this position again at any point,” Callahan said following the season.
“Don't have any interest in repeating this season, although
there's lots of things to glean from it lessons wise. I don't want to be in
this position again, and I'm fully determined and resolved to get us to a point
where we don't have to talk about how many games we've lost. We can talk about
how many games we won.”
