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Nov 6, 2020 at 8:21am CST • 3 min read
Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images/AFP
Divisional matchups are some of the zaniest and most difficult
games to bet. Coaching staffs know everything about their foe, even their
willingness to break off trends and tendencies. These games come down to
playmakers, but usually, it’s the role players who ascend to the moment more
than the superstars doing even more.
We’re going to break down the Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles
Chargers Week 10 matchup. This is a critical game as the 4-3 Raiders want to
maintain their bid in the playoff chase. The Chargers want to avoid falling
even further into a tailspin as they sit 2-5.
The major theme of this game will be the quarterback play, and
for good reason. Justin Herbert has overtaken Joe
Burrow as the favorite to win the Rookie of the Year award
on some of the best sportsbooks thanks to his dazzling start.
I'm not sure that's a wise bet at even or close to value considering Burrow's
situation and more impressive volume of work needed to be competent, but if you
picked Herbert when he was +500 or more then you should be plenty happy with
those NFL odds and your potential payoff.
Herbert's completing a
highly impressive statistical season though. With 67 percent of his passes
being complete for 1,820 yards, 15 touchdowns and five interceptions, he's on
pace for one of the best rookie years of all time. The Chargers must be
thrilled with his playmaking and improved mechanics already. Quarterbacks
coach Pep Hamilton has earned
league-wide praise already for that jump.
The rest of the season has been disastrous for the franchise. Injuries across the offensive line and other key spots have again limited the availability of difference-makers. This franchise feels cursed, and likely needs to reboot parts of their roster and staff after this season.
The offense has been quite effective, and the rush defense
remains strong. They rely on chunk gains on offense as Austin Ekeler's injury stunted some of the
consistency they showed early on. He's back into the fold now and he should do
very well against the Raiders.
But the defensive backfield has been uncharacteristically bad.
They traded the overrated but still talented Desmond King for nothing, and have
quality veterans Casey Hayward and Chris Harris Jr., yet sit with the
21st-ranked pass defense. That's bad news against this Raiders offense.
The Raiders have been a tough out thanks to their coaching,
tough-nosed approach, and efficient offense. The defense remains well
under-manned and they need to be criticized for burning assets on that side of
the ball, but Gruden's
ability to scheme an offense is impressive. He needs more weapons and a more
dynamic quarterback to make it better but he's getting the most out of his
team.
The tough part predicting the Raiders is they swing between
competitive and bad. Blowout losses to the Patriots and Buccaneers exposed
major weaknesses, and even their close wins and losses were easy to side-eye
with skepticism. They only felt like a good team against the Saints and Chiefs,
but they also beat those two teams.
The Raiders have simply executed better in crunch time under
this regime than the Chargers. For all of the possible criticisms of the
franchise, there's a stability in process that will be solidified in the
results if they can continue filling out the defense with higher-end talent.
The Chargers certainly cannot say that and it likely costs jobs in the near
future.
Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images/AFP
Derek Carr has put up good
numbers on the year as well, but this is Herbert's show. I expect both to have
efficient games with solid numbers, but leaving meat on the bone as usual. The
impact of each quarterback will be more important than the statistics, and I
like the veteran's play this year a little more than the rookie's. There's
nothing wrong with that happening considering the difference in experience.
I'm bullish on the total, so everything stems from that
under NFL pick. Check out our three free picks below for this
matchup.
