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Bill Barnwell
Winner: Tyler Linderbaum (and centers everywhere)
Loser: Baltimore Ravens
Yesterday's price is not today's price. When the Ravens selected
Linderbaum in the first round of the 2022 draft, they had to know what might
transpire down the line. The league lumps all offensive linemen together in
terms of evaluating fifth-year options and franchise tags, which would have
created a conflict if Linderbaum emerged as a standout, given how the center
market lagged behind what guards and especially tackles were paid. Some
organizations wouldn't bother caring or thinking about how that problem would
play out, but the Ravens are smart enough to think that far ahead and project
the market accordingly.
Well, Linderbaum emerged
as a standout, and the Ravens were facing a conundrum. In 2024, the highest-paid center in the
league was Creed Humphrey,
whose deal averaged $18 million per year. Linderbaum's fifth-year option for
2025, a no-brainer based on his play, would have cost the Ravens $23.6 million
for one year, obliterating the center market and making a long-term deal even
more difficult to negotiate. The Ravens declined and
hoped that they could get a deal done before Linderbaum became a free agent.
After 2025, the Ravens
had another shot at keeping Linderbaum by using the franchise tag. Again, it
was out of line with the center market, which hadn't budged from its $18
million peak salary. Franchising Linderbaum would have cost the Ravens $25.8
million.
The math just didn't add up. If he signed the tender, the Ravens
would have been forced to account for all of Linderbaum's salary on their 2026
cap, which would have been difficult even before trading for Maxx Crosby over
the weekend. Teams negotiating a multiyear deal with Linderbaum could structure
a contract with a smaller Year 1 cap figure by working money through the
signing bonus.
Well, Linderbaum hit free
agency, and guess what happened? The top of the market changed. Linderbaum
landed a three-year, $81 million deal from
the Raiders, blowing past Humphrey's record deal. Linderbaum's contract
averages $27 million per season, a 50% jump from the prior record for a center
and the largest contract for an interior lineman in league history. And because
it's a three-year pact, he will hit free agency again when he's about to turn
29.
It's one of the most
player-friendly deals in recent memory, and a reminder of just how effective
the franchise tag has been at limiting player value and salary growth. One of the other remarkably
player-friendly contracts that comes to mind is the initial extension signed
by Dak Prescott, who
also had a significant amount of leverage because he was one year from true
unrestricted free agency. A Cowboys team that had previously been hesitant to
sign Prescott catered to his every demand, giving him the largest signing bonus
in NFL history and a full no-trade/no-tag clause. It gave Prescott enough
leverage to become the highest-paid player in NFL history when he inked
his next deal in
September 2024.
It's possible that the Ravens never had a shot at getting a
Linderbaum deal done. Maybe they don't value interior linemen at that level,
which is reasonable enough given that they've let plenty of them leave in free
agency over the years (including Ryan Jensen and John Simpson, the
latter of whom rejoined Baltimore on
Monday). Maybe they knew where the market was heading and weren't willing to go
there. Given what the Raiders (and presumably other teams) were willing to pay
to sign Linderbaum, though, it's clear that the market was there for a center
in the $25 million range. Losing Linderbaum for a compensatory pick in 2027
hurts.
It will also be harder for the Ravens to replace Linderbaum
without those first-round picks in 2026 and 2027, which went to the Raiders
to acquire Crosby.
I'll mostly refer you to my colleague Ben Solak's thoughts on the Crosby deal and
why it fit what the Ravens needed on defense on the field, but it's stunning to
see a team that cherishes first-round picks move so much draft capital for a
player who turns 29 before the 2026 season begins.
That move might have forced the Ravens out of the Linderbaum
discussion, given how much Baltimore is committing to a handful of stars. It
also limits the Ravens' ability to build a Super Bowl contender around those
standouts because they've now lost two first-round picks (which makes Crosby an
even riskier addition). Factor in the implied value of two
first-rounders, and Crosby's making $57.5 million per year after the
trade, which means he has to be an MVP candidate on an annual basis to make
that deal work for the Ravens.
The Crosby trade isn't necessarily a bad one, but it puts an
organization that's generally very patient and rewarded for doing so into the
sort of risk profile the Ravens usually try to avoid. Comparisons to the Rams
aren't accurate; the Rams have traded this sort of draft capital only for
players who are either entering their peak or a quarterback. When they sent two Day 2
picks to the Broncos for Von Miller, the Rams
also got Denver to pay down the remainder of Miller's contract as part of the
move.
Lamar Jackson is
29. There's a difference between wanting to win now and leveraging assets to
make winning now a necessity. The Ravens are firmly in the latter category, and
though they gained Crosby, that move also cost them one of their best young
players in Linderbaum.
The shocking rise at the top of the center market changes a lot
of things. It's great news for teams such as the Chargers, who just inked a
solid starter in Tyler Biadasz to
a three-year deal for $30 million,
and the Bills, who re-signed Connor McGovern for $13 million per year before
free agency. It's bad news for teams such as the Commanders, who just cut
Biadasz in the middle of what looked like a reasonable deal, and the Cowboys,
who have a very good center coming due for a new deal soon in Cooper Beebe. The
Chiefs will be thrilled that they have Humphrey secured until 2029. The Bucs
and Steelers will have to be prepared to budget more for young standouts Graham Barton and Zach Frazier,
respectively, when they become eligible for new contracts in 2027.
And in the big picture, more money at center means less money
somewhere else. Though there has been plenty of ink spilled over the NFL's
unwillingness to spend significant money at running back over the past few
years, what has been lost in that conversation is where that cash has gone
instead. Much of it has gone to guards, where the market has risen dramatically
over the past decade. Teams are still spending on their run game, but they
prefer to spend that money on the guys blocking for the ball carrier instead of
the guy with the ball in his hands.
With the roof exploding for centers, does that squeeze running
backs even further? Linderbaum is making $9 million more than any running back
and about twice as much per year as guys like Kenneth Walker III and Travis Etienne Jr.
signed for in free agency Monday. You can decide whether that's a good idea,
but with center taking a larger market share, that money will come out of some
other position's bucket in the years to come.
For the Raiders,
Linderbaum fits as an investment on multiple levels. He's one of the more
athletic centers in the league, and that will be needed as new coach Klint
Kubiak installs what is likely to be a play-action, zone-heavy scheme. As I
covered in my Super Bowl preview,
Kubiak's Seahawks offense installed more gap runs and a wider range of concepts
than the classic stretch offense his father, Gary, learned and then operated
along with the Shanahan family years ago. But having athletic interior linemen
is essential if an offense wants to make a zone run game work.
Linderbaum can be physically overpowered by bigger defensive
tackles at times, but he's one of the league's better one-on-one pass-blocking
centers. He will be an essential set of eyes for presumptive first
pick Fernando Mendoza,
helping to set protections and sort out the many pressures the Raiders will see
from their AFC West opponents. Is this an overpay? Probably, but if the Raiders
were going to overpay for anybody, Linderbaum was the right guy to go over the top and add.